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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model