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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-01-16 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

SF
43.1%
DAL
56.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.159 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.177 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

SF

Azeez Al-Shaair LB Questionable Knee
Mitch Wishnowsky P Questionable Concussion
Marcell Harris LB Questionable Achilles
Talanoa Hufanga S Questionable Knee

DAL

Keanu Neal LB Out Chest

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 23
–
DAL 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:59 TD SF (10:59) 25-E.Mitchell right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 04:58 FG SF (4:58) 9-R.Gould 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – DAL 0
  • Q2 09:44 FG SF (9:44) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – DAL 0
  • Q2 05:24 TD DAL (5:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-A.Armstead]. SF 13 – DAL 6
  • Q2 03:08 FG SF (3:08) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 16 – DAL 7
  • Q3 05:58 TD SF (5:58) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 22 – DAL 7
  • Q4 11:58 FG DAL (11:58) 2-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. SF 23 – DAL 10
  • Q4 08:08 TD DAL (8:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – DAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%

    (4:58) 9-R.Gould 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:45) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to SF 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (9:44) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 73%

    (3:08) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 20 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 36%

    (:35) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to SF 3, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-84-S.McKeon.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:35) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to SF 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin. Injury update: Nick Bosa has a concussion and will not return to the game.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (4:38) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:41) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%

    (14:01) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger pass short right to 29-C.Goodwin pushed ob at SF 36 for 16 yards (26-J.Norman).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%

    (11:58) 2-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:51) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 16 for 5 yards (81-T.Sherfield).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 41%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 1-C.Wilson [1-J.Ward].

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 54%

    (:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.