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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP