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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 7 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP