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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 9-R.Gould 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model