Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(2:45) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to SF 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.65 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model