4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 26 for 5 yards (51-M.Bailey). PENALTY on TEN-81-R.McMath, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model