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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Saturday 2022-01-22 · 16:30 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
46.5%
TEN
53.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.192 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN on 6 more days rest than CIN
  • TEN defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22
–
TEN 24
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

CIN

Stanley Morgan WR Questionable Hamstring

TEN

Teair Tart DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 19
–
TEN 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:06 FG CIN (12:06) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – TEN 0
  • Q1 02:15 FG CIN (2:15) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 06:12 TD TEN (6:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – TEN 6
  • Q2 01:40 FG CIN (1:40) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 9 – TEN 6
  • Q3 09:41 TD CIN (9:41) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 15 – TEN 6
  • Q3 01:40 FG TEN (1:40) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. CIN 16 – TEN 9
  • Q3 00:22 TD TEN (:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Hill]. CIN 16 – TEN 15
  • Q4 00:04 FG CIN (:04) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 19 – TEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (12:06) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:10) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CIN 31, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:39) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on CIN-33-T.Flowers, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 25.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 61%

    (6:00) 6-B.Kern punts 27 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (2:15) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 27%

    (15:00) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:30) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 26 for 5 yards (51-M.Bailey). PENALTY on TEN-81-R.McMath, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 26.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (1:10) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:09) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 28 for no gain (33-T.Flowers).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (1:40) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 19 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 39%

    (11:26) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 70%

    (7:21) 22-D.Henry up the middle to CIN 37 for -2 yards (55-L.Wilson, 51-M.Bailey).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 18 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:52) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 16 for no gain (33-T.Flowers).