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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.92 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model