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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 28 for no gain (33-T.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model