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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 16

Tennessee Titans 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.12 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model