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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CIN 31, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model