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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 22-D.Henry up the middle to CIN 37 for -2 yards (55-L.Wilson, 51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model