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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 16 for no gain (33-T.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.49 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model