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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model