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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP