Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

(8:48) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to CIN 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model