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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2022-01-30 · 15:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

CIN
34.5%
KC
65.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.223 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.234 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.153 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22
–
KC 28
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

CIN

Stanley Morgan WR Doubtful Hamstring
Cameron Sample DE Doubtful Groin
Josh Tupou DT Questionable Knee

KC

Tyrann Mathieu S Questionable Concussion
Darrel Williams RB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 27
–
KC 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:25 TD KC (7:25) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 00:40 FG CIN (:40) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – KC 7
  • Q2 12:23 TD KC (12:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – KC 13
  • Q2 05:09 TD KC (5:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – KC 20
  • Q2 01:15 TD CIN (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – KC 21
  • Q3 03:02 FG CIN (3:02) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 13 – KC 21
  • Q3 00:18 TD CIN (:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – KC 21
  • Q4 06:07 FG CIN (6:07) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 24 – KC 21
  • Q4 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CIN 24 – KC 24
  • Q5 09:26 FG CIN (9:26) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 27 – KC 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:38) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to KC 16, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-84-M.Wilcox.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (:40) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:07) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to KC 28, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:58) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to CIN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 17 for 11 yards (23-A.Watts; 41-J.Winchester).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 48%

    (11:04) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to KC 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:48) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to CIN 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (3:02) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:14) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to CIN 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 34 for 11 yards (23-A.Watts).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 70%

    (6:07) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.