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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model