Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

(12:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.99 EP
68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model