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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 8-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model