Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LA defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- LA offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- SF defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.110 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.192 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 21
SF
LA
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 08:50 TD LA (8:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 6
- Q2 06:19 TD SF (6:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LA 7
- Q2 00:02 FG SF (:02) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – LA 7
- Q3 02:04 TD SF (2:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – LA 7
- Q4 13:35 TD LA (13:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – LA 13
- Q4 06:53 FG LA (6:53) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SF 17 – LA 17
- Q4 01:49 FG LA (1:49) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SF 17 – LA 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(14:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to SF 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 17-T.Benjamin pushed ob at SF 20 for 9 yards (38-B.Howell).
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Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(12:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to LA 33, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
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Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 59%
(3:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to LA 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-82-R.Dwelley.
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Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%
(1:55) 8-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
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Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%
(10:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to LA 11, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.
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Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 51%
(8:03) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to SF 43 for no gain (93-D.Jones; 54-F.Warner). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 34%
(10:01) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to LA 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.
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Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%
(6:53) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
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Q4 SF 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to LA 39, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
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Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 12 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(1:49) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.