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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 31 yards to LA 11, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model