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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to SF 43 for no gain (93-D.Jones; 54-F.Warner). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.03 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model