4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to LA 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model