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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model