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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 12

Los Angeles Rams 17 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model