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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:03) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (55-Z.Smith, 97-H.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +3.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.47 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model