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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 16:25 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

GB
66.4%
MIN
33.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.098 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.250 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

GB 26
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

GB

Allen Lazard WR Doubtful Ankle
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee
Elgton Jenkins G Questionable Pectoral

MIN

Lewis Cine S Questionable Knee
Jonathan Bullard DE Questionable Biceps

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 7
–
MIN 23

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:21 TD MIN (9:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 03:57 FG MIN (3:57) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. GB 0 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:45 TD MIN (:45) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – MIN 16
  • Q3 09:51 FG MIN (9:51) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. GB 0 – MIN 20
  • Q3 05:21 TD GB (5:21) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – MIN 20
  • Q4 06:52 FG MIN (6:52) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. GB 7 – MIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (9:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to MIN 15, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:38) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to GB 34, Center-42-A.DePaola. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 46 for 12 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (1:58) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to MIN 15, Center-56-J.Coco, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (14:17) 14-R.Wright punts 45 yards to GB 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (8:03) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (55-Z.Smith, 97-H.Phillips).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (3:57) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to MIN 19, Center-56-J.Coco. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 26 for 7 yards (40-T.Galeai).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:13) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to GB 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers. Penalty on GB-51-K.Barnes, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 64%

    (9:51) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:21) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to GB 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:58) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to MIN 16, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (6:52) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 93%

    (3:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan (54-E.Kendricks). Penalty on GB-73-Y.Nijman, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (1:08) 14-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.