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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 1-G.Joseph 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.60 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model