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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 5

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.12 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model