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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan (54-E.Kendricks). Penalty on GB-73-Y.Nijman, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.56 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model