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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 14-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP