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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to MIN 15, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model