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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 90

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to GB 34, Center-42-A.DePaola. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 46 for 12 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model