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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to MIN 15, Center-56-J.Coco, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model