4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 4-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to NE 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 8 for no gain (20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP