Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA defense: -0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- NE offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- Mac Jones (NE): +0.138 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
NE
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:10 FG MIA (4:10) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NE 0 – MIA 3
- Q2 07:40 TD MIA (7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -9 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at NE 2. 6-M.Ingram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 9
- Q2 00:24 TD MIA (:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 16
- Q3 04:50 TD NE (4:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 14-T.Montgomery for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 17
- Q3 00:24 FG MIA (:24) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NE 7 – MIA 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%
(4:10) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
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Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%
(14:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to MIA 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%
(7:53) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to NE 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.
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Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 45%
(4:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 42Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%
(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 61%
(13:15) 4-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to NE 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 8 for no gain (20-J.Bethel).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 76%
(:24) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
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Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to MIA 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 81Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EPp(convert) 73%
(11:19) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to NE 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 43 for 12 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel; 27-K.Crossen).
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Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 30%
(9:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 85-H.Henry (28-K.Kohou). Penalty on NE-77-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 39%
(6:06) 4-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to NE 5, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-27-K.Crossen.