4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 20 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 4-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to NE 5, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-27-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.18 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model