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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 25

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.22 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model