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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NO 10, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-D.Harty pushed ob at NO 22 for 12 yards (21-D.Marlowe).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP