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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NO
42.9%
ATL
57.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jameis Winston (NO): +0.127 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 21
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NO

Paulson Adebo CB Out Ankle
Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Shoulder
Dwayne Washington RB Out Hamstring
Tyrann Mathieu S Questionable Illness
J.T. Gray S Questionable Hamstring
Michael Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring
Landon Young T Questionable Hip

ATL

Darren Hall CB Questionable Quadricep
Drake London WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 27
–
ATL 26

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:44 FG ATL (10:44) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 05:51 TD NO (5:51) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 12:17 TD ATL (12:17) 84-C.Patterson up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – ATL 9
  • Q2 01:10 FG ATL (1:10) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 7 – ATL 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 7 – ATL 16
  • Q3 09:20 FG NO (9:20) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 10 – ATL 16
  • Q3 06:52 TD ATL (6:52) 66-C.Gossett reported in as eligible. 1-M.Mariota up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – ATL 22
  • Q4 12:45 FG ATL (12:45) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 10 – ATL 26
  • Q4 11:16 TD NO (11:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – ATL 26
  • Q4 03:42 TD NO (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – ATL 26
  • Q4 00:23 FG NO (:23) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 27 – ATL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%

    (10:44) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:25) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to ATL 21 for 11 yards (42-C.Hansen).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NO 23, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (2:46) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:23) 4-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:59) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NO 10, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-D.Harty pushed ob at NO 22 for 12 yards (21-D.Marlowe).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to ATL 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (1:10) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:36) 4-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to ATL 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to ATL 39 for 13 yards (20-P.Werner).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

    (9:20) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to ATL 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to 50 for 18 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (12:45) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NO 14, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 42%

    (:54) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NO 10, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Harty. PENALTY on ATL-48-L.McCullough, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 10.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 75%

    (:23) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.