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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to ATL 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model