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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model