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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model