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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 26 – New Orleans Saints 18

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NO 14, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model