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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 24 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(:23) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.63 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model