Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(11:50) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to PHI 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 11 yards (25-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model