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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

PHI
53.3%
DET
46.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to PHI: Jared Goff (DET) -0.039 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) -0.019 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
DET 23
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PHI

No players on the report.

DET

Tommy Kraemer G Out Back
Levi Onwuzurike DE Out Back
Ifeatu Melifonwu CB Doubtful Hamstring
Julian Okwara LB Questionable Hamstring
Frank Ragnow C Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 38
–
DET 35

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:23 TD DET (10:23) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 13:00 TD PHI (13:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DET 7
  • Q2 07:38 TD PHI (7:38) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – DET 7
  • Q2 06:36 TD PHI (6:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry (43-K.White) [95-M.Tuipulotu] at DET 27. 24-J.Bradberry for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – DET 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD DET (2:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 32-D.Swift left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:09 FG PHI (:09) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 24 – DET 14
  • Q3 10:25 TD PHI (10:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – DET 14
  • Q3 04:14 TD DET (4:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 31 – DET 20
  • Q3 01:45 TD PHI (1:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 37 – DET 21
  • Q4 14:19 TD DET (14:19) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 38 – DET 27
  • Q4 03:56 TD DET (3:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 4-D.Chark for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 38 – DET 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%

    (7:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown (24-A.Oruwariye).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:58) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to PHI 18, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (13:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:50) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to PHI 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 11 yards (25-W.Harris).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:12) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to DET 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 22 for 12 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:52) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to PHI 32, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-B.Covey to PHI 34 for 2 yards (23-M.Hughes).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 32-D.Swift left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:09) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:49) 8-A.Siposs punts 48 yards to DET 17, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-K.Raymond to DET 20 for 3 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:49) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to PHI 17, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:31) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to DET 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for 11 yards (58-K.Johnson; 48-P.Johnson). PENALTY on DET-31-K.Joseph, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 38.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 60%

    (1:06) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to DET 39 for 1 yard (55-D.Barnes).