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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to DET 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 22 for 12 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP